[climateprediction.net] New study going out to volunteer's machines

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[climateprediction.net] New study going out to volunteer's machines

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STORMS: Investigating how low-pressure systems may change in the future

(actual project name - “Quantifying controls on the intensity, variability and impacts of extreme European STORMS”)

Victoria Sinclair, Clément Bouvier
Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research,
University of Helsinki, Finland

Throughout the year, low-pressure systems regularly move across Europe, usually from west to east, bringing cloud, rain and windy weather. Sometimes these weather systems can become very intense, and the winds and rain associated with them can cause damage to buildings and infrastructure, flooding, and can disrupt electricity supply and travel. Although the short-term weather forecasts of these storms are now quite accurate, it still remains uncertain how these storms, and their impacts, are likely to change in the future as our climate changes. Some of this uncertainty is because our understanding of what controls the strength and impacts of these storms is incomplete.

The aim of this project is to understand what controls the strength and structure of these low-pressure systems. We will quantify how the atmospheric state that the low-pressure systems develop in affects the strength and structure of these low-pressure systems. This atmospheric state can be described by various parameters, for example, the mean temperature, moisture content, and upper-level wind speeds (i.e. the strength and width of the jet stream). Since there are lots of different parameters we want to study (not just the ones described above), we want to do lots of experiments in a high controlled manner. Therefore, we will run a large ensemble of simulations of idealised low-pressure systems using the numerical weather prediction model OpenIFS. Although the simulations are idealised, the weather systems that develop look very like real weather systems that we observed in reality. Each ensemble member differs in its initial atmospheric state, and we choose these initial states to cover everything from the current climate to past pre-industrial climates to the most extreme future climate projections. This is exciting because although idealised simulations of low-pressure systems have been performed before, this is the first time that such an extensive exploration of the parameter space will be conducted.

Once we have the results from the large ensemble, we will calculate different measures of the strength of the storms and then use machine learning techniques to see how these relate to the initial states. Our results will hopefully increase in confidence in how these storms and their impacts will change in the future.

Technical information:

Please ensure 'Leave non-GPU tasks in memory while suspended' is set in Disk/Memory options of boincmgr

CPDN app-name: oifs_43r3_bl
Run time: ~6 hrs/task on a modern CPU
Max memory: ~7Gb
Total number of files: 354 files
Model output: 16Mb per output step (uncompressed)
Total size of uploaded files: 1.5GB
Checkpoint filesize: ~800Mb (these are periodically created & deleted in the slot dir and not uploaded)[/b]

Source: https://www.cpdn.org/forum_thread.php?id=9187
StefanR5R
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Re: [climateprediction.net] New study going out to volunteer's machines

Post by StefanR5R »

Whoa, about 1/3rd (edit: certainly less than half) of the task duration of the current oifs_43r3_ps batches, but almost the same result data size per task to upload?

I should probably check their message board for whether they a) fixed their upload server¹, b) tripled its data throughput or added two more servers of the same capacity.²


¹) Until three days ago, when I uploaded my last oifs_43r3_ps results, the server still exhibited recurring transient HTTP errors.

²) Actually I don't need to go check their message board. One of my hosts fetched two first oifs_43r3_bl tasks, and several of their first upload transfers are already stuck due to "transient HTTP error".
StefanR5R
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Re: [climateprediction.net] New study going out to volunteer's machines

Post by StefanR5R »

So far they emitted only about 7000 tasks, which are all assigned to hosts already (IOW, 0 tasks ready to send) and of which 1/3rd has already been completed. Their feeble upload server should survive such a small batch easily. But the announcement sounds like a bigger batch than that.
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biodoc
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Re: [climateprediction.net] New study going out to volunteer's machines

Post by biodoc »

The Helsinki scientists will be transferring the data from the upload server to their own server via the network according to this post by Glenn Carver. If they are doing this in real time then that could add to the network load at Jasmin. I haven't seen any network issues yet on my end.

I believe these OpenIFS 43r3 Baroclinic Lifecycle tasks are worth 1,232 points based on the test batch they sent out in December.
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